The number of Americans claiming long-term unemployment benefits has slipped back to levels not seen since November 2008 in a small sign that the labor market may be beginning to turn the corner.

In spite of a continually high unemployment rate – 9.5 percent of Americans willing and able to work were without a job in June – and fresh warnings from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that it will remain high, the benefit figures point to a gradually positive trend.

The IMF predicts that the U.S. unemployment rate will remain above 9 percent until the end of 2011, declining to 8.4 percent by 2012.

The latest data show that the number of people filing for claims for the first time fell in the first week of July by 21,000 to 454,000, almost double the 12,000 drop economists had been predicting. It was the biggest one-week fall since the middle of April.

Fears of “Double-Dip” Recession Have Eased

The numbers were published shortly after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) calmed fears over the prospect of a double-dip recession in the U.S., upgrading its growth forecast to 3.3 percent for this year and 2.9 percent for next year.

But the IMF’s numbers are lower than Obama Administration’s most recent forecast, which sees economic growth of close to 4 percent next year, with growth above 4 percent in the years that follow.

The IMF said that the U.S. economic recovery is becoming "increasingly well established" but it warned that risks to the recovery remain.

U.S. Rebound “Stronger Than We Expected”

The IMF said that the U.S. rebound "has proved stronger than we had earlier expected" thanks in large part to what it called a "powerful and effective policy response" on the part of the government, including the efforts of the Federal Reserve.

But the IMF also said the Obama administration is overestimating U.S. economic growth and needs to trim government deficits by hundreds of billions of additional dollars if its announced budget targets are to be met.

The IMF said that the American economy faces a number of problems as it emerges from its worst economic downturn since the Great Depression -- lingering unemployment, a likely permanent loss of output, an expected wave of defaults on commercial real estate deals that could damage local and regional banks.

The IMF said the U.S. faces a “central challenge” in implementing a “credible fiscal strategy” to ensure that public debt is put on a sustainable path without putting the economic recovery in jeopardy.

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